Timber I think the answer is obvious. As you say he has very little chance of getting reelected without prefs being directed to him. So faced with that reality the good senator could be open to cutting a deal over the NBN. If the NBN gets knocked back in the upper house , and Fielding is the key to doing so, then the Libs may see enough political mileage at election time to cut the deal. As you say he is a wild card and unpredictable, but he may also be a realist when it comes to getting re elected.
If the opposition can go to the next election pointing to the many failures of the Rudd government and the NBN being the last and highest profile one still ringing in the ears of the voters, then the Libs may judge it to be enough to strike the deal.
fielding being courted by libs, page-28
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