Figures - Rev and Costs

Hello all,
I currently do not have a position with FMG- I am considering an entry and have looked for numbers. Here is my summary:

For the financial year ended 30 June:
C1 costs $34 WMT
C1+SRA (Shipping, Royalties, Admin) $52 WMT
C1+SRA $56 DMT (premium of 4 dollars on WMT)
Realised Price $106 DMT
Platts index 62% $123 DMT
Discount to Platts 14%

For the 30 June Quarter
C1 costs $34 WMT
C1+SRA (Shipping, Royalties, Admin) $49 WMT
C1+SRA $53 DMT (premium of 4 dollars on WMT)
Realised Price $82 DMT
Platts index 62% 103 DMT
Discount to Platts 20%

For the 30 September Quarter
C1 costs $32 WMT
C1+SRA (Shipping, Royalties, Admin) $45 WMT
C1+SRA (NOT AVAILABLE) DMT - lets assume its on a 4 dollars premium on top of WMT = $49
Realised Price $71 DMT
Platts index 62% $90 DMT
Discount to Platts 21%

Current Platts index 62% is at $68 DMT.

Based on the latest discount that FMG sells on the Platts index (21%, as seen in the Sep Quarter), its realised price is $53.72 DMT (when Platts is at $68 DMT)
Current assumed C1+SRA is $49 DMT (based on $45 WMT of the Sep Quarter + a 4 dollar mark up).
That leaves a margin of $4.72 per DMT.

Break Even Point (What if Scenario)
Asumming Platts Index 62% drops to $62 DMT - realised price will be $49DMT, which equals the current assumed C1+SRA ----- This is the current breakeven point for FMG.

if we hit the bottom of IO this would make an amazing opporitunity as the Market Cap is so low...PE ratio of 4.5.
But is this worth the risk of further IO downtrend?

Opinions?