final bullish confirmation, page-77

Thanks Moz, but in the last few months I've barely posted. Interestingly, I went to the US on Saturday the 13th September, which had Lehmann's go bust on the 15th of September and flew out of Canada on Friday 21 November (low for the AORD). During that whole time I was in nth America the SP was heading south fast, right to my average purchase price of 40cents, yet I never contemplated selling because the fundamentals of the company hadn't changed - they'd gotten better since the time I'd purchased. Didn't sell at $3.20, so there was no point selling at 40cents.

I'm glad that a big buyer or two has finally recognised the potential upside of BRM. I wouldn't be surprised if it isn't $2.50 placement holders who sold off during that 10 week period and are now buying back in. Even allowing a miniscule NPV of $1 per tonne we have a total NPV of $1billion, yet we're sitting on a value of about $140million. Plenty of upside I figure.

The hardest part of the equation for BRM getting ore to market was access to a port, which WR has achieved. The NWIOA has access to a port from 2012 which means they don't have to pay exhorbitant fees to FMG or BHP for port access. I know many reckon the rail is the most important, but there are options there, particularly as third party rail access is something that the Government supports and will have some reasonable pricing regime (unlike third party access to ports - I think), nothwithstanding BHP and RIO's bleatings. I reckon Westcott wouldn't be too far off with his prediction of some arrangement with Hancock. No point getting the ore to the coast if you couldn't load it onto a ship and still keep some profit. I wonder how much Andrew Forrest wanted to charge for port facilities - $30+ per tonne maybe?

I like the way the price is going up a few cents a day rather than the spike that we had in March, probably means we're getting a lot more holders who won't wet themselves the moment things turn sour, which is likely to happen a few times in the coming months. Let's see if today we have a day of consolidation or whether there is end of week profit taking. I reckon we might be in for a red day given the rapid rise this last week.