Hi @Bluequatrz,
Using, the 42/58 Higher/Medium quality to Commercial quality developed by Wombat's modelling, I have arrived at the following:
My guess is the total carats taken to auction will be 450,000
My clearance rate is 90% as it is MUS's first auction and quality ruby market demand is still increasing.
Average price per carat $137.78.
450,000 x 0.9 = 405,000 cleared at auction.
42% x 405,000 = 170,100 of Higher/Medium quality rubies. Using GEM's own auction figures for only selling this quality level at the Dec 2015 auction of $317 per carat, equals $53,921,700.
58% x 405,000 = 234,900 Lower/Commercial quality rubies. Using again GEM's data from their ruby JORC, and as MUS is not taking to auction the rubbish, I have used the figure of $8 per carat. This portion then equals $1,879,200.
The total auction amount then is $55,800,900, which is 405,000 carats x average price of $137.78 per carat.
Many will say not possible, however, given the increase in quantity being sent to the auction, and apparently the sustained higher quality, MUS have been retrieving from the new lease, over the last 6 months, the above scenario is quite possible, and not pie in the sky or just in our dreams.
Naturally, just my opinion, but it will be interesting to see what the final result actually is. As always do your own research.
Cheers
gsmaree
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