I expect some weakening in the share price through short term selling as well - missed the run up on the GM announcement to sell and buy back later. Expect the next run up will be when a higher reserve is announced using a higher gold price. That said I think the current reserve price is more realistic.
I don't think many people understand the value of their hedge position. Have a look at the article on the CAH website
http://www.highgrade.net/article/2009�]04�]06/Catalpa_sits_on_the_hedge
Bruce McFadzean admits it may be tempting to cash in the hedge and wait for other opportunities/a second chance.
They are only partially hedged, so if gold goes down or the Aussie dollar up significantly it makes the rest of the ounces more marginal and the development less attractive.
I estimate the hedge is now in the money well more than the current market cap less the cash raised from the capital raising.
What is Catalpa worth if it had the current gold reserve, no debt facility or hedge, but $150m cash in the bank? Well it could have about that today if it closed out the hedge. Around 15c cash plus the option to develop the mine in the future - trading at 7.5c? Why would you sell?
If this were to happen I would not be surprised to CAH look at buying Cracow or LST's interest in Cracow, but pure speculation on my behalf.
Just my opinion
Monty
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I expect some weakening in the share price through short term...
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