Finally :part 2

Briefly reiterating  part 1 where it was established that the BRK SWISH AOI is essentially the Continental Resources Springboard III project as represented by the below map from PHX Minerals  presentation .



To recap, the RED squares are the BRK DSU's with the 3 HBP wells and the current Wolf Pack well locations highlighted. The Scissortail wells are highlighted  as those 2 wells are being drilled and completed approximately at the same time as the BRK Wolf Pack well.

BRK have made statements that the SWISH AOI is the " core of the core" in terms of tier 1 acreage which is why it believes any assets held there are/ will be  highly sought after/ desired by the industry .

As shown in part 1, in  late 2020, when the SWISH AOI was essentially unknown and Springboard III was barely drilled, CLR paid ~ US$168 million for 19500 net acres which  ~4000 was HBP with the rest being unproven leasehold, at a time  WTI oil was selling for less than US$ 50 a barrel , and gas ~US$2.5 a MMCF. The acquisition was negotiated and signed  in early  2020 before the COVID oil price collapse, which caused CLR to baulk at the purchase, and Casillas won in court to force the sale which was completed in Nov 2020.

Compare the map below ( March 2020) showing the wells drilled in the area vs the map above.




The following are some portions of the Dec 2021 CLR 4th quarter earing call when specific mention of the Springboard III project was made and it's relative performance and importance to CLR.




"CONITINUED "




The slide the CEO mentioned in his answer.




It is clear that the Sringboard III project Woodford wells are outperforming the SB I and II, with the Sycamore wells significantly so which is specifically called out by the CEO.

The importance of the Spring board III to CLR is obvious as referenced by the below extract of the PHX DEC  fiscal 2022  call of Dec 14, 2022.




What is interesting is the fact that CLR have kept their  successes in SB III  on the low down during the time they were being privatised by Harold Hamm so as not to advertise them not to attract too much investor interest and avoid a share price run up.  

So we have 3rd party sources speaking to the quality of SPB III / the SWISH AOI and to the start of full scale drilling development with multiple rigs, right at the time BRK are looking to monetise their assets. This is not to say the CLR will buy the BRK assets (even though they would fill in some of the missing pieces in the jigsaw puzzle),  but if it is not CLR, then another major operators active in the area  like Marathon, Ovinitv or even possible even Camino ( who operate the Sundance Kid DSU and have acreage adjacent to Flames)  will be interested in ready to drill DSU's.

There is currently however significant doubt by many on HC as to why would anyone pay for NPV  minus a 20-30% discount valuation in ground where the BRK  share price is so low because the "market" is always correct and knows everything.

To be clear, the BRK monetisation plan is nothing new. All parties active in the area have been transacting on NPV acreage transactions , buying from unlisted oil/ gas companies and PE operators  for decades, it is just a question of when  ( 2023) and how much ( a lot more than some and less than others ).


Cheers

Dan