I think the market is only slowly waking up to the nearing of a likely submission and EIA approval.
But GGG is difficult to study in-depth and the market these days is a bit too lazy to look deeply enough to see whats actually going on in full. It instead likes to jump between headline shares for quick gains over indepth efforts for long term ongoing profits..no matter how large.
I have studied this company indepth for some time.
The market is still valuing a considerable discount in for chance of failure without looking deep enough to find how little that chance actually is.
Theres really little bad news potential in future. Its all behind the company now. As it has all been overcome in recent years. The biggest threats, by far, were political uncertainty and environmental concerns.
Political uncertainty is no longer an issue as it was in 2015 to 2017. 19/36 politial seats now in favour of the project and a further 7 previously in agreement. All in power for as long as it will take for this project to be approved with the current government in power totally supporting the project.
This arena cant be more sorted than now.
On the environmental side. Again it is no longer any real concern. Danish EPA has stated (off record) to the press they see no major objections to the EPA. Just a few added details. GGG management have confirmed this. EPA departments between these countries are relativelt similar in requirements.
Public minority environmental objection totally ignored by the government numerous times before when requesting referendum. The governments interest is purely, as they have stated numerous times on questioning, ensuring compliance with IAEA (as a part of the EIA).
If GGG can achieve international standards and the majority of local concerns. That’s their current requirement to satisfy the government. Once the EIA is approved thats half of that set in gold.
Further it seems theres been no objections of worth to the EPA by Greenland either. As 90% of the submission has already been guided by the department over these past 2-3 years and the remaining 10% have had some minor details needing sorting (same as been “stated” by the Danish EPA and GGGs quarterlys) and even by the Minister as posted here by a fellow member who has spoken to him personally on his support for the project and likelyhood of its go ahead. Further all of this we have seen in press or company announcement, numerous times, and due to be settled in upcoming weeks.
Then we have the SIA. This one is even easier. Local Mayor in support. Unlike before. Various local working groups hold no major objections and voicing and even recently signing support to co-operate. These are the parties that will be determining support or opposing the project in the SIA and they already clearly favour the former. Government not prepared to listen to irrational anti urani groups who are ready to give up the fight. It all seems very clear cut here too.
The only potential issue may be financing further down the track beyond all the approvals. But given the greatly reduced CAPEX and OPEX in recent years. (all due to be updated next quarter) Immediate offtake (absent processing) now in play by Shenghe sorting out the avenues to do so for GGG back in China. Long term offtake MOU guarantee and the biggest and fastest expanding player on the planet in the REE sector drooling over a 60% stake, by setting up infrastructure channels in China tailored Exactly to the projects source (their other projects dont need uranium import involvement as they are either processed at Moly or already from within China so theres no other source on the books these plans could be set for).
Keep in mind Shenghe have taken these steps in investment and intention without even waiting to get GGGs approvals through first. What does that say about weater Shenghe (the most savy and fastest growing REE company on the globe) suspects this project will be approved or not?
Finally Shenghe is offering to source funding options if needed (after the 60% stake no doubt). It all seems a bit of a no brainer here too. Shenghe has surely already looked into the financing side and knowing they can get it gone further into setting up the offtake processing approvals back home. Why would you even do that and invest such time and money if you weren’t yet sure to some degree the project was highly likely to be falling into your hands?
I really dont understand why the market hasnt yet peiced this all together yet beyond it hasnt yet spent the time and leaving it till the approvals actually come through when the best gains are already made.
Shenghe can obviously see it and shifted into action. They are prepped to jump upon its 60% ownership before the market can wake up to whats going on. Yet the market sits fast asleep. No wonder the Chinese make so much money in this industry within Western markets. As Western markets don’t look deep enough into projects and their likely futures as well as the Chinese tend to do.
Shenghe has only got two main resources of REEs. It only has a stake in GGG as its final potential source. Theres nothing else on its books. IIt needs GGG to grow. cant find any evidence its even looking at any other project. Given GGG now offers a uranium advantage to to Chinese huge upcoming nuclear demands and Shenghe has now clearly taken action into this sector too by holding a recent stake in Chinese National Nuclear Corp (GOVERNMENT DEPARTMENT AFFILIATED BUSINESS...how much more thump do you need than that). It’s a double whammy for Shenghe in profits and future growth....and still GGGs share price flouders in idiocy as Shenghe lines all this up withonly GGG filling its bill in this respect. Its unbelievable the sp remains so low and the the Chinese must be rubbing their hands in glee in anticipation of their upcoming steal in buying up GGG.
Even if there was a minor issue to iron out with financing Shendghe hasn’t spotted yet. Thats far down the track with a ton of good news and approvals on its way well before this stage eventuates, and hence, considerable share price gains by simply returning to the share price max last year or the year before when all these threats where still due to be overcome.
There really isnt anything that can stop this project that I can see that cant be worked around. Please let me know if you can think of anything Ive overlooked? I cant find a thing. Its the first time I can safely say that given all the recent events falling into place and if theres anything not covered let us all know.
All it is to me is just a matter of time. Of which, with everything moving much faster, it doesnt look to be a lot to wait for given the scale of the return due. Investors love 10%pa. Yet this looks set to be more inline with 300-600%pa easily as all the approvals would be passed within a year.
When all these concerning factors were an active threat. The share price was almost four times as much as now. So with the concerns all sorted and resolved years down the track. You do the math on how much further the share price could go beyond that figure and what profits investors are looking to make here (beyond my conservative prediction of only returning to what it once was with all these concerns still in play).
Plus, with all analysts saying REE AND uranium prices are at a all-time low with nowhere to go but up. Its all really painting a picture to be the best investment currently around I can find at the most prime time to hold a stake in it.
Im sure investors profit margins will be in strong agreement soon and we will all look back at this buying opportunity and slap our foreheads as we just wish we had bought so much more….as on all fronts I can see…unless anyone sees anything Ive not yet discovered or stated....this share is a rocket ready to blast off into the blue.
(20min delay)
