ML - I read somewhere recently that de-watering systems are in place now at the south end. Was it in the quarterly?
Captain Hindsight was brought in as a consultant after the recent slippage and told them that because rainfall exceeded the annual average by 400% for 4 years in a row the tailings dam was too close to the south end of the pit due to the shale layer strength when saturated. Apparently captain hindsight says you should plan for rainfall events more than 6 times the standard deviation from average as regular and re-occuring. Original plan obviously considered the probability of recent annual rainfall as highly improbable and risk management said the location was an acceptable risk .
If de-watering systems are in place now they will be able to reduce the water mass in the looser shale layer to avoid having too much mass/stress in this layer. Once that is in place they can then adjust the pit design as per this recent presentation to adjust the tension and avoid the shear. Looks like they have it in hand but until the remediation work is complete we will need to be patient to understand its effectiveness over time.
OZL Price at posting:
$4.38 Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
