Market doesn't want to buy this stock...maybe it is trying to tell us something.
Current market cap of $45m + net debt of ~$40m at 30 June. EV of ~$85m. Based on earnings guidance of FY19 EBITDA of 'low to mid $20m range' (generously call it $20m given dire track record):
two possible scenarios in my view, neither of them particularly good - Either:
a) the market now believes this stock deserves to trade at ~4x
b) its a 6x business and the market expects FY19 earnings to be ~25% below recent guidance.
AGM tomorrow, yet another earnings downgrade? If earnings guidance is reaffirmed I'm thinking this stock gets a positive jump in share price... Either way, holding in tomorrow feels like a lottery.
Market doesn't want to buy this stock...maybe it is trying to...
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