Financials

Conclusion: CFO is probably already generating A$7mn of revenue for those prepared to do a little reading.

Page 94 of the Prospectus - "Supply Agreement" states that TRL will buy 4,148.15 cubic feet at $337.50 and after a year it will revert to 90% of the lowest list price.

Page 37 of the Prospectus - annual production set at 10,000 cubic feet with "first year plan to sell 80% of this...20% inventoried."

Based on the prospectus only, you have 4,148.15 at $337.50 = US$1.4mn. A further 3,851.85 cubic feet to be sold externally (assume $400) = $1.54mn...so as per the prospectus, revenue is forecast to be US$2.94mn or A$3.92mn (compares very favourably to AJX, EDE, EMC so early on).

Based on the update, current production is annualising at 12,000. They also said they had acquired containers to hold inventory so they probably haven't completed their 2,000 cubic feet of inventory yet. That is, the 12,000 (annualised) is likely sales and probably all TRL...so 12,000 at $337.50 = $4mn or A$5.4mn annualised. Add the non-TRL sales and sales are already annualising at A$7mn (+80% on prospectus).

Pitch Foam - There is a contract done. They told everyone. Companies don't start a production run of a new product without a contract in place. Furthermore, they told us they had already been awarded sales pending the licence transfer, which is later this month...so its now A$7mn + Pitch Foam.

As for margins, they are going to be very high - page 37 of the prospectus states that costs are coal (cheap in the US), liquid nitrogen (cheap), natural gas (Cheap) and electricity.

Terrific buying down here when you look at comps - EMC ($210mn market cap for $426k in revenue at the half); EDE (market cap of $276mn and $1.2mn of revenue last reported); AJX ($160mn market cap and A$3mn of revenue FY16). Even SMN (market cap of $180mn and no revenue)...CFO has a market cap of $49mn for +A$7mn of annualised revenue...and given its cost base, will be profitable (easily) in FY18.

I think a lot of people may need to either sell their stock and move on or just be a bit more patient (or read). Its been listed for all of 35 days and is smashing prospectus forecasts (for anyone who actually reads it) and has some pretty significant things in the fire by the sounds of it. Personally, I'm very happy for the selling, I'd rather buy at 52c than 62c...but I'd suggest giving management a bit of a break and let them run the company, they've given investors more information than they needed to, barely a month after listing. Good luck to the holders/buyers. Thanks to the sellers.