DRA 0.00% $1.87 dra global limited

I think you will find that the resource sheets include metal...

  1. 3,159 Posts.
    I think you will find that the resource sheets include metal already extracted - But I could be wrong.

    Anyway, here are my issues and my opinion.

    They have two producing mines. Svartliden and Orivesi.

    Svartliden is a big contributor to their 5yr production forecasts yet they don't (Yet) have the reserves to support the plan.

    Orivesi is good on reserves but over all it contributes the least to the plan.

    Jokisivu has enough resource and should prove ok once ramped up.

    I estimate they have approx. 800K Oz reserves available "Officially"... This is spread across 3 mines and two countries.

    KUUSAMO does not appear to be in the production plan so why contribute any value to it...? ZERO

    By knocking KUUSAMO out we end up with around 600K oz resource.

    Svartliden is dead so I cant contribute much future value to it... ZERO.

    Orivesi has maybe 200K oz in it and at 25K oz per year has a 10yr mine life and an NPV of approx. $50M imo

    Jokisivu 260K at 30K oz per year 8.5yr mine life and an NPV of also approx. $50M

    So we got $100M in value (13c per share'ish) at these mines if all goes to plan. And that is where I see value and decided to buy some DRAs under 8.5c.

    But lets assume they get it all together and have 10yrs at 100K oz per year, by my estimates the NPV of the business is $200M or 27c per share.

    So imo the stock should be priced at 12c and if they can prove up 1M oz "still in the ground" resources at the three mines above then you get a share price of 25c'ish.

    Anything else (higher gold prices, lower costs, more resources, more mines etc) is just icing and i wont factor it into the equations until it's closer to fact.

    All this is backed by 6c ($40M) in Net Assets.

    6c really was the sweet spot for buying onto this stock, but I'm ok with it under 9c.

    Anyway, just some ramblings from me.
 
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