OGC 0.00% $2.20 oceanagold corporation

Otakou, I think you have me confused. I'm merely clearing up...

  1. 19 Posts.
    Otakou, I think you have me confused. I'm merely clearing up statements from others that are just plain incorrect. For the record, I have been an investor in gold stocks since 1999. It is inevitable in my view that the gold price will go to the moon in time, in whatever currency you look at it.
    The risk in hedging is if you cant deliver the ounces. You may or may not be aware of the history of Sons of Gwalia, a gold producer with a big hedge book that went bust. The gold price surged but due to production problems it was unable to deliver into the hedges and no cash to buy them out - hence it went BUST! - in a GOLD BULL MARKET.
    For the record, as it stands today, the Oceana Gold hedge book is currently negative $275m NZD (at current NZD spot gold price of $1720), i.e. to close it out, they would require $275m cash, or you can look at it as $275m in lost profits! In value per share, A$2 a share lost profits! Therefore if OGC was trading today, with no hedge book, it would be easy to argue the stock would be A$3, not A80c. If you think the hedges are good, that is a ridiculous argument, since for the $773 hedges to become valuable, NZD gold price has to fall below this, which is very close to cost of production. What do you think the price of OGC would be if NZD gold price goes to $770! (remember they would be losing money, and have $300m in debt). ??????
    I buy gold stocks because I believe the gold price will go up, why would I want to own a hedged producer, like the Barrick of old.
    Looking forward as you seem to think I dont, in 2 years, with all hedges delivered into, it is easy to see OGC could be making $200m (AUD)+ from 2011 onwards, in which case a conservative valuation would be 5x this, ie $1b market cap = A$6/share. Remember the key value driver for OGC is the NZD gold price.....you can't look at NZD/USD in isolation or the gold price in USD by itself.
    In summary, loads of upside, but not without risk. Feel free to correct me, but these are just some thoughts for the benefit of other OGC investors.
 
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