BBI is unfairly tainted by its association with BNB. However, it...

BBI is unfairly tainted by its association with BNB. However, it is still a risky situation.

I believe BBI has a decent chance to meet its short term financial obligations.

By Dec - 85mill for remaining 24% equity of Westnet Rail they have to complete plus around $60m to $80m of associated mezz debt. Say $165m in total

By Feb - 75m pounds (say AUD$190m)for PD Ports which may possibly not be refinanced and as such needs equity injection, but very possible it may still be rolled over by the banks.

By Feb - $100m of corporate debt that needs to be paid down .

How will they meet this:

around $150m in cashflow by end Dec this yr (apparently approx $300m cashflow pa) due to distributions not being paid.

net proceeds from Powerco 50% sale to QIC which is NZD$400m (say AUD$320m)...however likely to be after Feb next year due to NZ authorities needing to approve this.

So, they really need an asset sale at around book value (which will realise significant net equity) to settle by end Dec this yr or in Jan at latest. I believe there is more than an even money chance this can be done.

What is up for grabs -

1. Westnet Rail (apparently QR may be sniffing around on this one) - although iron ore sentiment is poor at the moment, volumes may still not fall that much. Business is largely in Geraldton area of midwest WA. Some grains business, but majority minerals transportation to Geraldton Port. Iron Ore customers include Portman Mining, and Mt Gibson (Tallering Peak only - which is the better quality ore).

2. EuroPorts (by all accounts one of the lesser quality assets as they are not regulated and are cyclical) - may not happen as may need to take a big haircut on this one at this current point in time.

3. DBCT (an amazing asset) - had unsolicited offers from the large Coal miners in the Bowen Basin such as XST, Anglo, and MCC who want more control in the expansions that are required. I would be surprised if they could not get a good price from this unique asset, and potentially from those who understand it very well and could settle quickly.

However, the situation is tight, and is risky nonetheless. However, I take comfort from the quality and uniqueness of these assets (more so from the ET&D division), the majority of which are monopolistic in nature and hence regulated, and as such provides earnings certainty.

Best of luck to all holders.