Tony Abbott’s “sex appeal” candidate, Fiona Scott, is poised for a landslide victory in the litmus-test western Sydney seat of Lindsay with a stunning 60% of the primary vote, according to a Guardian Lonergan poll.
Scott’s huge lead over the sitting member, the assistant treasurer, David Bradbury, who has held the marginal seat since 2007, surprised even the pollster.
It showed Scott with 60% of the primary vote, compared with 43% at the last election, and Bradbury on just 32%, compared with 45% in 2010.
The certain defeat of scores of New South Wales MPs such as Bradbury was a driving reason behind Labor’s decision to oust former prime minister Julia Gillard in June in favour of Kevin Rudd, who, according to polling at the time, was much more popular in marginal electorates.
But a 12% decline in Bradbury’s primary vote according to the Lonergan poll suggests the Rudd honeymoon is waning in the west, and raises big questions about the effectiveness of Labor’s campaign.
Thirty per cent of Lindsay voters said the leadership change from Gillard to Rudd had made them less likely to vote Labor, 23% said it made them more likely and 47% said it made no difference.
On every measure, the poll shows voters in Lindsay – centred around Penrith – prefer Abbott to deal with the issues they most care about.
Of the 1,038 questioned in the automated telephone poll, 44% nominated the economy as the most important issue in the election and 67% said they thought the Liberal party was best to manage that issue, compared with 30% who preferred Labor.
