GBG 0.00% 2.9¢ gindalbie metals ltd

Thanks Major, I always like to see someone else comment on what...

  1. 5,241 Posts.
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    Thanks Major, I always like to see someone else comment on what I say, Its what the forum is here for. I think the GBG forum is great with a lot of informed posters. Other ones like MMX etc is just garbage with kids screaming "woooshhhhhh the training is leaving etc".

    With regards to shares on issue we currently stand at 514,028,850. Options (both vested and non vested) that are not exercised remain at: 16,700,000. All of this information is from GBG's last quarterly - check it out!

    This puts a current total at 530,728,850.

    We are issuing 190,658,824 to Ansteel bringing the full diluted total to: 721,387,674 fully diluted after placement. My 704m figure was off the top of my head as well, but its close enough :P I assume a few more million shares will be issued over the next several years for seniors and executives.

    Now GBG should have around $40 million cash in bank in the GBG controlled entity. GBG has said no exploration activities will be done until Karara is up and running, hence a cash flow being produced. So basically $40 million will be used for the next 3 years of administration. That is fine given GBG has only spent $5 on admin in the last 9 months. All development costs will be incurred by KML, not GBG. KML holds most the cash and will incur the line. So I see no problems there.

    Neither GBG or Ansteel have mentioned how the cash flow from KML will be distributed. However before anything is distributed both the interest and debt will need to be covered as stated in the agreement. There should still be $30-$40 million pa on initial production left over for GBG after debt and interest cover. I assume this would be distributed, I could be wrong, but we haven't heard anything about this. If distributed it will be enough for exploration of DSO/Lodestone. I see no reason for excess money to stay in KML. We have just as much control over that entity as Ansteel.

    Without the Terapod deposit I believe GBG's DSO stands at 5-6 mt. Which is pathetic really. I agree they will need to do some exploration and get something to mine with a decent mine life. However I am hoping that Terapod is allowed to be developed. This will mean DSO exploration won't be crucial.

    I have no doubts Ansteel will use GBG as a takeover puppet for other resource companies, especially coking coal. However at this point in time I believe there focus will be solely on Karara. Once Karara is running then yes a full script takeover may occur. However assuming it brings the relevant revenue with it I see no problems to our EPS.

    My Lodestone development comment was simply thrown out there. GBG has already indicated they would most likely do a JV, it makes sense and is a lot easier. We really need to see the IO price and Karara financials in the future to determine if Lodestone is feasible by GBG without a JV. Anyhow Lodestone won't be developed until Oakjee is up, which is a good 5-7 years away. Hence a 100%-70% GBG operation may be possible assuming we take on a lot of debt. Yet again this is blue sky talk and shouldn't be factored into the share price by any means.

    I've obviously been suckered into Lodestone :P however we know little of the deposit except the fact that it has size - 1 billion tonne potential. Grades, impurities, and processing are all a mystery to us. Karara can still support a 20mtpa operation fairly easily which is a 10mtpa entitlement to us. Not bad at all.

    My point to my page of ramblings is that I don't believe GBG will need to raise more money via placements. Well nothing significant maybe 10 million or so. Issuing 70 million shares to reach your 800m figure will not be required unless a serious development outside the KML venture occurs.. In my opinion nothing will happen until Karara is up and running, their is simply no point given the GFC.
 
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