It's a trade relationship scenario. You scratch my back I...

It's a trade relationship scenario. You scratch my back I scratch yours. They're keeping the approval as a card up their sleeve in case China does not ease its imposed trade restrictions. If we continually accept Chinese backed financial moves while being restricted on our own trade with the Chinese, it will make the Oz govt look even more foolish.

Tensions and trade restrictions are easing, and trade is mutually beneficially. Diplomatic meetings seldom go sour, and our delegates trip this month has a high probability of going well. If the predisposition was negative there would be no meetings to begin with, no one wants to be part of a negative situation.

There is an overwhelming probability that an approval is granted for a few reasons,

1 - FIRB rarely rejects applications.
2 - Applicants will be conscious of criteria for rejection and not move on a trade that is likely to get rejected.
3 - This purchase has little if no detrimental effect on national interest.

I think for this to be rejected China would have to invade Taiwan.
I'd give the probability of approval to the transaction 90% or more.