firb - lnc - coal asset sale

There is a lot of talk on this forum of LNC being woefully undervalued because of its previous highs and I have been eyeing another purchase lately. I already hold, using the cash from SAPEX (SPXO) sale to buy after takeover - a very nice deal indeed, its worth noting that LNC SP was pushed to an extraordinary price during the takeover - $5.19 (in the midst of Global financial meltdown and Lehman collapse), awfully overvalued and then crashed to $1.25, a LOT of speculation.

So can we get to that amount of speculation again?

From a fundamental perspective:

So we get to the third time lucky scenario of the coal tenements sale, UBS managing the sale and a slow, cautious approach. Problem is, the FIRB -

"the government is much more comfortable with Chinese investments in undeveloped projects below 50 per cent and in major producers at below 15 per cent."

There is now a long list of Chinese investments that have been capped or called off.

Sinosteel - Murchinson Metals - 49.9%
CNMC - Lyncas - Deal called off
Yanzhou Coal - Felix Coal - FIRB reinforcement of 50% rule, deal up in the air.

The only 2 complete takeovers or controlling interests, so far have been:

China Minmetal - OZ Minerals
Zhongjin Lingnan's controlling stake in Perilya

Both were Australian companies in trouble and massive debt.

The closest comparable deal is Felix Coal, which has set off some alarm bells. I also strongly believe that Yanzhou are one of the bidders for LNC. I will be eyeing what happens with the Felix deal in regards putting more money into LNC.