Fire and water, page-22

I also hold through BKW but looked at the diluted values going through BKW and decided I wanted a small position directly as well. This opportunity in fact reminded me of APA and Envestra (ENV) which was finally taken over by an overseas group. The GFC as I recall put pressure on ENV and their share price just went down. The cash flows however and the length of time to having to renew the finance debt was such that they had positive cash flows. There was nothing wrong that needed fixing but the market saw risk off and ran away. The share traded around 32c and when sold in 2014 it went for $1.32... The same can be said for those that saw value in Infigen at various points and have been handsomely reward.

My evaluations are very simple:

The coal will be sold for the life of all the mines here. I would be unhappy if they start looking beyond the 2040 time frame.
The price is the issue and the current prices are likely to be a base. Not many easy investors or banks are going to want their AGM's filled with dissident shareholders holding 1 share so they can have a platform. So really not that many more mines will be opened and supply wont flood market. Equally its not in miners interests to let the price get too close to renewables because the response that will be made will be permanent.
So the big issue here is cash flow and if you look to the cash flows this should give you plus plus returns off this price. Hence my jumping in and buying more shares directly.
The added benefit is that as bankers pull out - those companies with strong balance sheets and good cash flow can probably add assets that are good earners. This to me is much like cigarettes and just look at how well BAT is doing since 1995. Very happy to hold some directly here.