Michael,
I have to agree. It has taken time to consummate the deal, but it places both DYL and MEY in a better position than before: DYL have the opportunity to make a project decision at a lower, long-term U3O8 price and MEY gets to share in any of the upside arising from that. Moreover, it serves as a kind of guide as to how other deals can be structured in the future.
If we assume the long term U3O8 price readjusts to US$60 (versus low US$40s today), both firms are pretty confident that the Tumas project would be economical. Depending on cut-off grade used, Tumas has anything between 12-21MM pounds of U3O8, and could expand on this with additional drilling. For the sake of the argument, let's meet half way at 16MM lbs. Assuming 80% recoveries on pounds in ground and an FX rate of USDAUD of 1.3, then the value of this transaction to MEY in that kind of environment is over A$40MM! MEY currently trades at a market cap of A$5.5MM today.
If you add in the likelihood that other deals can be transacted, then the potential upside is absolutely huge when the U3O8 market turns around. Or consider what the outcome may be if MEY were ever to conclude a deal with an existing producer, where the additional financing risks of getting an added project off the ground are greatly diminished!
I'm a long-term supporter, but MEY strikes me as a deeply out-of-the money option on a rise in U3O8 prices, especially in the surficial calcrete space in which many of the household names in Namibia are exposed.
In answer to another question by frednurk, yes, it is deeply frustrating to watch the share price collapse on next-to-no volume, somtimes. I think part of the problem reflects the 1-for-100 consolidation that took place a while back. With only 24MM shares outstanding, the stock is tightly held and only trades in dribs and drabs. In time, this situation ought to improve. Another factor is that nobody is currently excited about the U3O8 space. But when the turn comes, like with precious metal juniors earlier this year, the shifts can be quite violent and, as highlighted above, MEY is as good a place to park your money as other stocks with bigger, yet uneconomic projects. Finally, management is aware that it needs to broaden the shareholder base and improve on promoting the positive aspects of the Marenica story.
With the achievement of this milestone, MEY has turned the corner. It's time to get on board.
G
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34.0¢ |
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Mkt cap ! $104.8M |
Open | High | Low | Value | Volume |
32.0¢ | 34.0¢ | 32.0¢ | $441.6K | 1.339M |
Buyers (Bids)
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
---|---|---|
1 | 18866 | 33.0¢ |
Sellers (Offers)
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
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34.0¢ | 33705 | 5 |
View Market Depth
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
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1 | 18866 | 0.330 |
3 | 32172 | 0.320 |
1 | 40000 | 0.315 |
4 | 73000 | 0.310 |
3 | 27016 | 0.300 |
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
---|---|---|
0.340 | 19000 | 4 |
0.345 | 67500 | 2 |
0.350 | 102500 | 3 |
0.355 | 83584 | 1 |
0.360 | 15000 | 2 |
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