Ok, we're watching it...
Notes on WG as a presenter:
- Positives: he's professionally presented this time. He's in a suit, with a professional background. The information is all very good, and highly relevant - and boy oh boy, are there some easter eggs in there... WG and FGR generally, might be the Easter Bunny come late - but that egg looks huge, and double milk chocolate.
- Negatives: he's not natural. Its like Trump vs Biden (and he's not Trump - not that I'm a Trump supporter please note - I just acknowledge what people as strong at - and a charismatic, memorable presentation of information, Trump is consistently excellent at, whilst Biden is not). Its obvious he's reading from a teleprompter. He doesn't have natural body language - he doesn't move or gesture. He sighs and huffs - like he's tired of having to do the presentation towards the end. In short - he doesn't fill you with enthusiam, for the company, and you tune out, of whats highly valuable information. Even shorter - I'm glad I read it, rather than listened to it, first.
Ok, having finished watching it - basic summary - I appreciate you've got a lot on WG, but please try to make people tune in, rather than tune out when you present. Pretend like you're talking to a friend, rather than another pesky investor.
Now to the content:
- Gerdau's not a maybe, its a definite, we're just finessing the terms (and I know LTH's don't trust WG, but he'll lose his directors license potentially if he's wrong on this, so I don't think he'd make the statement lightly). And its going to be a 50/50. Does that mean there's going to be an FGR Americas as a 50/50 JV between Gerdau and FGR. Holy Easter Egg, Batman.
- Rio's very keen re bucket and wear liners. So they frikkin well should be, if they want to remain cost competitive. My only question is why aren't FMG, BHP, S32 etc, falling all over themselves to changeover as well.
- Steelblue - look forward to the launch.
- 6TPA operational breakeven to be achieved by existing contracts and the rest are upside to an accounting breakeven (ie: not cash based so includes depreciation and amortisation) and beyond. And they're already noting - hey, 2M will get you a doubling of capacity to 200TPA at Henderson, 5M will get you that, on a different continent (and again, does that mean 2.5M gets you that, as a JV with Gerdau, in Brazil...?)
Anyway. Overall, the information in that presentation was tremendously valueable. The presentation of it, unfortunately, detracted from the information, rather than added to it, which is clear if you just read the presentation, rather than watch it. But he's made a number of changes, and with just loosening up and joining Toastmasters or a similar public speaking training org, for a while, he could do a much better job. However, agree, MB has certainly been the better interview so far.
I think WG is an introvert. Introverts are wonderful at understanding the data, being analytical, and working in a structured way, to improve a project, over a long period of time, has been my experience. FGR has needed someone like that - and its a good person to have as a chair. It wouldn't be a good person to have as a CEO - in terms of getting a team together and positive, and positive engagement with all stakeholders, but the kind of "strategy and structure" head he strikes me as - not a bad fit. Does that mean I think he should be doing a pile of interviews? Not without some Toastmasters, Wazza!
But wow - holy cow. There was some amazing information in there.
(20min delay)
