Anyone that is speculating here without reading the decision is joking.
The decision was unequivically for MOB - it stated that without doubt that V could not issue a 0 target for new subscribers - this is clearly in breach of the need to set subscribers with MOB and jointly work a business plan. MOB won of every count bar 3 - the first was a small issue with respect to redundancies claimed - about $600K, the second retention payment from V to assist MOB in securing existing customers, and the third was the complete repudiation of the contract.
MOB sued V for breach for only 5 quarters (plus V pulled out of an agreed contract to transfer 30,00 subs to MOB) !! the NPV of each of the quarters is approx $1.9million. So for 5 quarters - $10 million. There are still another 22 quarters before the contract ends!!!! - none of this has been yet claimed by MOB because it was hoping that the judge would repudiate the contract (yes the NPV would decrease each quarter but you do the sums - $40 million is easy). The Judge did not repudiate (despite strong evidence) so now MOB will have to sue for the remaining quarters if V continues in breach. The boss of V Mr Maher has stated - that the target of 0 will be set until the end of the contract (because V is targeting higher spend users + V wants to own the customer totally). Even if V now starts setting a target of 12,000 subscribers per quarter (as specified by the Judge), moving forward this still is a great deal for MOB - it would book connection revenue of $40 per sub for the first 8,000 and $20 per sub for the remaining 4,000. Additionally, MOB charges $5-$7 management fee per month per sub.
MOB is running cash positive as it stands - and they expensed all legal costs - by winning the case they will also get court expenses paid plus their own expenses. There are 2 large shareholders in MOB - one of them Mr Marchbank was undisputably the creditible witness in the trial - the judge constantly ?ed the credibility and recollections of V. Not only that, but MOB appears to have an excellent paper trail to support their case.
So the options for V - yes they can appeal (they still have 20 days left) but the judgement was so clear cut (and if u read the case u would agree) that V would lose - even if it goes to the High Court. V appears to be also in trouble because thaye have signed on an direct marketing company in WA which is also in clear breach of the "exclusivity" of the agreement.
If V settles - lets say min $40 million plus court costs plus expenses of MOB in fighting the case - all up $45 million. MOB could sell existing subs to a carrier (they would only get marginal price per sub - say $20 per sub) and then dissolve - after redundancies you would expect say $40 million left (remember they already have cash on hand) - take tax at 30% and u are left with $28 million - 26c per share. THIS IS THE MINIMUM RETURN.
What we need to remember is that speculation is that MOB has previously knocked back $40 million. I know that the judges decision resulted in absolute euphoria within MOB. Their sights are now higher than $40 million and obviously would prefer V offer a takeover for MOB shares to end it quickly.
This is the case where David is crushing Goliath - V was in such a shambles with management changes, restructuring etc that they just have not managed the situation well and their constant delays means MOB has cleaned them up.
V publicity around this case has been a disaster - credibility ?'s of Maher , other V management. ALSO, i understand (3rd party advice) that V allowed for $80 million in their accounts last year as a provision to settle this issue.
I am way long on MOB from 11c - I have had plenty of opportunities to sell at 23-26c BUT why sell this - if u haven't yet bought you should - if you have nothing else to do this weekend download the judgement from lawlink and read the judges verdict towards the back third of the document. It is very detailed, precise and makes a judgement on each of the claims.
Hope this helps - and DOC - have a shot at this instead of holding SFA - I reckon that 30c is without ?.
MOB Price at posting:
0.0¢ Sentiment: None Disclosure: Held
