Hi Kenjul. The Market always treats those companies that are...

Hi Kenjul. The Market always treats those companies that are pioneers as Market leaders and thus warrants an advantage to share price over it's peers. APC and KLL are currently on different path's at the moment and your question on share price differentials based on same milestone is certainly an interesting one. My personal view is that it should be in terms of its output. However share price will also depend on what the prices are for SOP at the point when you are about to start producing SOP. KLL are ready to start producing as the price for SOP has seen significant movements in regional markets. If regional prices remain the same from now to the day that APC start producing than yes in theory APC would have an advantage here.

My understanding of KLL is that at some point if they were to double up production they would possibly have to go back to there shareholders to ask for more money. Shareholders could either sell-off their positions to account for the dilution of their holdings or you will see a short term decline in share price. It all depends how the market treats the handout. There are also more costs associated with retro-fitting or scaling up potash plants like this. My opinion would be that once the market has settled for KLL that we would see a drop in share price due to the inevitable need to scale up.

To add more complexity to your question - APC holds mining leases for gold and Nickel Sulphide deposits. So if we see further assay results that are favourable than we would see a rerate here. It's a very difficult question to answer but I believe there is more upside to APC than other peers. SO4 will surely be in the below 10c zone when they come off trading halt and a further delay with getting the production facility ready to start producing. APC already have a lot of cash at the moment and I believe that the syndicated debt will be a formality. It's just a question of shopping around for the best deal.