First Production This Week, page-437

Interesting thoughts.
I think it might come sooner, maybe October or so for the sector turn around. Ultimately it comes down to lithium prices and on that front,
* lithium hydroxide (LIOH) becoming the preferred product due to better battery capacity and batterylifetime with lower costs from hard rock.
* LiOH prices have come come down slightly in China but have increased rapidly outside of China. Lithium carbonate (Li2CO3) prices in China have retreated significantly from previously very high values while outside of China, prices have been rising to catch up to the Chinese prices. For hard rock producers like AJM, 6% concentrate offtake prices have remained at record levels according to MIN and GXY.

In this pricing environment, that is likely to happen,

* GXY pointed out again that there is an emerging seasonality factor to the lithium sector as is seen in yearly EV sales which also build up and peak in December.
* Chinese government changes to subsidies resulted in a destocking of producers as they push for higher energy densities as mandated by the new regulations. This destocking hurt prices
* EV sales growth still above expectations at near 77% YOY in spite of a shake up in the Chinese auto industry to higher energy density longer range cars.
* Li sector retrace is at 40% from January values and as Goldman Sachs stated is 'overdone'

From July GXY announcement,

'As was observed in both 2016 and 2017 pricing is expected to recover strongly in H2 2018 in line with targeted NEV production volumes across the globe and a continued lag in the supply side response. Continued demand growth and the processing lag between new spodumene production, its conversion into chemicals and ultimate consumption within an end use application is expected to ensure the market balance remains tight within the foreseeable future, supporting a recovered pricing environment. - GXY (July 2018)