What EBITDA is everyone expecting or hopeful for TOX to achieve?
Last quarter their EBITDA was $1.588 million.
From July 1st the STCS acquisition was made effective, with an expected EBITDA of 500k per year. It is quite probable to be higher than this based on the acquisition payment scheme which gives STSC management incentive to increase profits. So as a base case this will give TOX 500k/4 = 125k EBITDA extra for the quarter.
The Grime Fighters acquisition was effective as of the 1st of August. The expected EBITDA was 450k per year, however in the Market Update a few weeks ago TOX indicated 'the Grime Fighters business is performing above initial expectations due to increased activity in the Goldfields.' So 450k/4quarters * 2/3 (as its only been effective for 2 out of 3 months of the quarter) * 1.2 (an extra 20% because of increased activity) = 90k EBITDA. This is base case in my opinion.
This gives us a figure of 1.588 + 0.125 + 0.9 = $1.803 million EBITDA still assuming no organic growth.
Therefore, taking into account a small organic growth rate of around 5% (traditionally much higher for TOX), we get a figure of $1.9 million EBITDA. I am confident TOX will achieve this figure or higher, and I believe when they do the market will react quite positively. What are other people's predictions?
What EBITDA is everyone expecting or hopeful for TOX to...
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