Lets assume they meet the first year forecast and the numbers are accurate for the sake of this question.
AISC of US$651/oz ~ AUD$920/oz for the first year Gold price AUD$2650/oz (assume a constant price) Does this mean TIE stand to make a profit of AUD$1730/oz multiplied by 260,000 oz = approx AUD$450mil in the first 12 months starting Dec/Jan? Minus tax of course! Is that all AISC (as the name suggests) all in? I'm struggling to fathom the idea that they are 6 months away from making this kind of cash whilst being at this valuation. If they stay at 35c for the next 18 months (let's assume) then they are going to have something like $450mil of cash in the bank making what 300-400mil a year and still be valued at $350mil? If these forecasts are met it seems implausible that this wont rerate several times higher?
Please correct any of my false interpretations and assumptions. Thanks guys
TIE Price at posting:
35.0¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held