The problem with Imugene is in one sentenceNovartis requires...

The problem with Imugene is in one sentence
Novartis requires confidentiality on development & terms.

This means that the company can't provide any details about future revenue, leaving us largely stumbling in the dark when it comes to valuation.

We know that development costs are being paid for, and we can guess that there's a regular license fee that's enough to cover administrative costs. But we have no idea how big the milestone payments are or what the royalty on any products that reach market will be (2%? 5%? possibly as high as 10%?).

So we don't know how big the potential upside is, or how long it's likely to take to reach milestones or royalties. The downside risks are Novartis pulling out like Merial did, or the products failing in further trials, or competing products coming along.

In these circumstances I suspect board members aren't allowed to trade shares, but if they can and do that would be one useful signal.

Otherwise this seems a bit of a punt in the dark to me, and it's not surprising there's been no real rally in the share price since the Novartis agreement. I confess to buying a small holding largely on a gut feeling, which is not something I usually do.