Hi lazyinvest,Sorry it taken so long to respond.Re the asset...

Hi lazyinvest,
Sorry it taken so long to respond.
Re the asset value of the blocks. Based on the approved number of lots and the current 'impaired' value of the land,I couldn't agree more,in that it appears to be a no- brainer in terms of future opportunity.
However, it is not just the initial purchase price of the land on which the asset value should be assessed.
It is obviously the developmental costs and the marketability of the development.
This site brings with it some unusual initial start up costs that might be hard to amortise over the 13-15yrs of the project.That is they may need to be funded
(and the borrowings serviced) 'upfront', falling unevenly and heavily on the early Stages, effecting the profitability of those stages.
Apart from the initial purchase price, and standard developmental costs, there is an expensive road to be constructed, the sewerage and water treatment plant (and ponds?) needs to be completed and operational well before first house is complete, including the appointment (and salaries) of operational staff. I would think it would require at least several completed stages, housing a significant population, before this utility becomes profitable. If the houses don't go up quickly,this could become a ongoing liability to the project. I also understand that there may be considerable costs associated with environmental obligations (fencing, possibly some road realignments, signage etc.)
It is around marketability that I have my greatest reservations.
Although some areas of the estate have outstanding views,the location is isolated and distant from services. The development is only valuable if people want to live there. Unlike Port Bouvard, this estate is less likely to attract investment purchasers, because most renters want to be more accessible to services,transport,schools and employment.
Consequently I believe the success of this estate will get little benefit from that section of the market and will be dependent almost exclusively on owner/occupiers.
In my opinion,however, many of those who would most value the natural beauty and bush of this isolated area,in turn,are not going to be attracted to an 'urbanised' estate of 3080 blocks, housing about 7000 residents, in such an otherwise isolated on clave. I really wonder if Port Bouvard Ltd did there market research.
With Oceanique, I don't believe ,it was just the General Financial Crisis, that has caused problems. I suspect that PBD did not do enough homework on location preferences and lifestyle requirements of upmarket apartment dwellers.
I am afraid they may be repeating that error with Point Grey. I love that area, but even with its great views and possible easy access to the Ocean ,via the Cut, I would not want to live there. In addition, and without over emphasising the significance of the problem, I understand the reality is that parts of the area is also heavily mosquito prone.
It is also important to realistically consider the likely competition including the advantages and disadvantages of the competitor's estates. I understand the Govt will be developing huge tracts of land further north,up the freeway at Keralup.I also notice that Austin Cove,closer to amenities, is selling blocks around $160.000 .
The development also has to overcome the problem that it is not popular with a vocal section of the Peel region. Whether that is right or wrong ,it too could effect marketability.
Hence in valuing this estate,it is not simple arithmetic and I find it hard to assess the real value of the estate in its now subdivided form. The sub division may have in fact created a model to which the market is not responsive in that location.