flamant bet now one way, page-5

tlw upside IMO there's many reasons to see 202 as a pretty concrete floor with plenty of upside, making 203 look ridiculousy cheap. Of course there is the risk the scheme fails and HDR sp plunges, but that risk is mostly several months off.

For now the upside comes from:
*rival bid
*mkt substantially rerates HDR to above bid price
*upside in script component (can take 40% as TLW)

Why would mkt rerate HDR before scheme meeting?
Success in Flamant, or either of the next 2 Mauritania wildcats.

Why upside on TLW script?
*TLW down like most oilers, script component at current TLW sp of 358 also equates to A$2.02
*UK insto's price TLW up, seeing HDR takeover as value acretive for TLW.
*Kingfisher success
*Any other TLW sucess in the next 2 mths.
UK market

If UK insto's share the views on this board, and see 202 as a steal, then TLW will be up in London tonight, and we could see up to 40% of that % gain on the ASX tomorrow.

Also we must be seeing a lot of very impatient stale bulls exiting HDR today, with much relief. Tempting!

Hardman today must be one of the safest oil stocks to hold short term, with one of the best short term upsides.

Entropylord