I actually took some time to work this through today, need to put some more thought into it and work a couple things out.
My core thoughts that will contribute to the longer term ratio that plays out as productivity comes on:
1. Tamboran has the land and the model to exceed 1 Bcf/day without breaking much of a sweat and contemplates up to several Bcf/d in longer LNG dependent scenarios2. Tamboran will require significantly more cash but be beyond significantly more profitable.
- at present EEG lacks the developable land to justify infrastructure (specifically compression and gas processing) to go beyond 100-150 mmcf/d.
- net Tamboran 10X EEG
3. Aussie management and investment via Underwood benefits EEG
- early capital requirements will stall Tamboran's valuation versus EEG, I would surmise that is part of the current 2:1 ratio
4. The properties will inevitably be primarily valued on their production + their scale to expand or provide energy security long term.
- but while it will be a foreign asset, NYSE investors will better support an aspiring producer and better recognize the value via Stoneburner/Formantera Partners
- the move to NYSE will begin the process of opening the valuation ratio up
- EEG as currently constructed offers little with regard to longer term scale or energy security
- this provides motive for investors to crash the party before the full valuation is realized...not easy but possible/plausible.
So, two things counterbalance in the ~2026 timeframe. TBN and EEG production revenue could be relatively close to each other depending on who really wins the race into the pipe. Both claim to have agreements or advantages (EEG compression purchase). NYSE market exposure could really get TBN moving.
Time will tell, in the long term the valuation difference will exceed 10X.
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