Flares, page-121

Here’s a summary of Joel Riddle’s comments from the Chuck Yates interview (published 1 Feb 2025) regarding well shut-ins in the Beetaloo and their impact on IP30 and longer-term performance:

Key Points: Shut-in Impact on Beetaloo Wells

1. Highly Desiccated Shale:

• Beetaloo shale is extremely dry, described as “desiccated,” meaning it acts like a sponge.
• When fractured, only 10–15% of the water returns, compared to 60–70% in US shale plays like the Marcellus.
• The retained water migrates slowly, creating micro-fractures over time.

2. Shut-In Period Enhances Flow:

• During a shut-in, water continues to permeate the shale, enhancing the fracture network.
• This process improves gas flow paths, resulting in 30–40% better performance post shut-in.

3. Real-World Example:

• A Grenadier well in West Virginia was accidentally shut in for 120 days after a mudslide.
• When brought online, it showed 34% higher production than expected — zero water production was observed.

4. Strategic Shut-In Approach:

• Tamboran is applying this insight in the Beetaloo.
• SS-2H and SS-3H wells will have a short soaking period followed by up to nine months of shut-in before pipeline tie-in.
• They aim to compare:
  • IP30 after 30-day soak, and
  • production after nine months shut-in.

5. Potential Game-Changer:

• If performance continues to improve linearly with shut-in time, it could redefine optimal completion timing and materially boost estimated EURs (Estimated Ultimate Recovery).

Implications for SS-2H ST1 IP30 Forecast:

If the SS-2H ST1 well is allowed to shut-in longer before extended flowback, its IP30 could exceed my current estimate of 22.2 MMcf/d (normalized to 10,000 ft*) by 30–40% at the extreme (!) potentially pushing it toward:

22.2 x 1.4 = ~31.1 MMcf/d (upper bound)}

This highlights a strategic differentiator for the Beetaloo Basin versus US shale — patience could materially improve flow performance.

Shock ‘n Awe, all y’all!

* a normalised estimate for the SS-2H ST1 well assuming it performs similarly (or better) than SS-1H, adjusted for: Longer lateral length, Higher proppant intensity, and Improved stimulation equipment.