Flattening the Curve

The daily growth rate of coronavirus cases in Australia has fallen so significantly that the federal Health Minister believes "we are now flattening the curve".

Key points:

• Health Minister Greg Hunt said Australians had "risen to the occasion"
• Experts agree the data shows physical-distancing measures are working
• In Victoria, there are concerns about a sharp increase in suspected community transmissions

Greg Hunt said the daily increase in cases had dropped from 25–30 per cent just over a week ago to 9 per cent this week.

Experts say the slowing growth rate of COVID-19 shows the actions taken by the National Cabinet, and individual Australians, are working.

Mr Hunt said the physical-distancing measures being implemented by Australians were saving lives.

"In these most difficult of times, with these most difficult of measures that none of us had ever dreamt we would ever be involved in, you have risen to the occasion," he said.

"We are seeing what I would describe as early promising signs of the curve flattening."

The Minister for Health, Mr Hunt, has announced a great success.

But is it real?

Yes, now that our borders are closed we have no new arrivals from o/s. No new imported infections if you like.

But has enough been done to flatten the curve of endogenous or community transmission rate of infection?

Social distancing and more strict self-isolation has been in place along with policing of medical-directed isolation. Yet people are still going for groceries etc. My last trip to Woolies had relatively few people and the reduced prices of groceries suggests that there is reduced demand, yet the aisle encounters continue, of course.

My wife wanted fried rice to dinner on our way home so we stopped at her favourite noodle shop in the medium sized regional town. According to the local Area Health Service stats, this town has 19 people with confirmed covid infection. The noodle shop has a thick plastic "fly deterrent" screen at the door which we must push aside to enter. The slats of the plastic screen are filthy with human contact residues. Its been reported that the covid virus can survive up to 72 hours on a plastic surface. I bloody well cringed going through that door to join my wife I can tell you.

IMO, we have only just started the community transmission phase of this epidemic.

Do you think Mr Hunt is correct and new cases will now reduce or at least flatten?

Such a cheery thought on April 1. And such a lovely autumn day too.

Scott.