While I know the recent Capital raise has not been well received (understatement of the year), I remain VERY positive on BGT and believe the undersubscription will be easily taken up family trusts and sophisticated investors.
The Henlow April 2020 Capital Markets Presentation is one of the best I have seen - It gives a clear Road map to Flavocide commercialization and we are well down that road. If you are invested in BGT or thinking of investing this is a MUST READ to be kept in your files and progress tracked
I attach 2 key slides " Current Insecticides' and 'BGT Commercialization Model'
> Material Transfer Agreements (We have 8 with more coming) leading to
> Evaluation Agreements (we have 2 Bayer for Crop Storage and Clarkes for insecticide mosquito control) leading to > ?>Commercial Agreements IMHO with the latest Bayer crop storage and preliminary Aquatic test and other previous tests on Bees a lot of the risks have been taken off the table.
BGT are not dependent on 1 Partner or one product in my opinion there are more applications for Flavocide and more MGA's coming.
BGT is not dependent on just one product or partner
2 different major uses of Flavocide so far
a) Crop Storage (Lesser Grain Borer)
b) Insecticide (Mosquitoes)
8 signed Material Transfer Agreement (MTA) with more projected2 MTA have progressed to Evaluation Agreements
BGT has 4 Target markets
> Crop Protection
> Grain Storage
> Public Health
> Consumer Products
> Road Map to Commercialization is already established. Others Nihon Nohyaku Diamides with their 2008 ' Novel 28' the last crop protection insecticide commercial compound has provided a ideal road map and commercialization example license fees of 3-5% of sales) Note below page 8 - BGT appear to indicate that they can grow to sales of over US$1 Billion @ 3-5 % = revenues of US$30-50 million as a licensed dependable revenue stream a multiple conservatively in the 12-15 times range market cap US$360 million to US$ 750 million - say middle range circa US$500 million market cap @ 1..45 US$ to A$ =A$725 million so about 20-25X todays market cap should be conservatively possible if everything goes to plan
Stay positive the CEO said a few months ago we had cash on hand for 12 months, however we are realistically 24 months away from recurring license revenues (confirmed to me by Richard Jagger) assuming as expected all tests etc continue to do well. So we would have had to have raised again and better to raise now and have over A$6 million in the bank with a lot of uncertainty with Covid 19 and the global economies
We have a lot of news coming ...September 2-3 months away we will get the 3 month test results of the Stage 2 Bayer test for the extension of the 3 months Flavocide test through 6-9 and probably 12 months and combination with other products to control other storage test.
Stage 3 will involve the testing of the final product Bayer combination grain storage for probably 12 months and then if successful there is regulatory filings / approvals in many markets based on the final product test results.
For BGT it does not mean BGT is a risk free nothing ever however we are progressing very well so far down the track to commercialization.
IMHO we have a good board and an excellent CEO, who is getting the job done and is happy to answer shareholder questions. They are not IMHO over rewarded and while I would have liked them to buy more share in the last CR they are well invested in the company.
So stay positive as Rome was not built in a day and as Warren Buffet said 'the stock market is a device for transferring money from the impatient to the patient' . Remember people have to have 1) Health (insect control - mosquitoes) and 2) have got to eat so crops need to be grown and stored we are I am convinced in one of the right sectors
So IMHO stay patient and provided we continue to track to the 'commercial model outlined and are successful in commercialization I believe BGT market cap will be many multiples from where it is today (minimum Disallowed)
As a reminder of why we need new pesticides, virtually all existing pesticides are highly toxic and leave resides in the air, and then much longer in the ground and water table causing untold damage to humans, animal, and the critical insects bees that are required for pollination of crops.
This is why we urgently need new non toxic pesticides like Flavocide - See below Monsanto 'dodged a bullet' by selling to bayer who now have to settle US$10.9 Billion (stung by the B) for settlement of cancer claims related to the previous Monsanto now Bayer "RoundUp weedkiller).
Once they get going with more research ...they are now finally understanding the harm to bees I would not be suprised to see claims on todays insecticides
Remember Patience !!! 24 months may seem a long time to wait for commercialization however there will be much news along the way and the share price should increase on such news and provided we continue to progress along the laid out commercialization road map. Read the BGT Capital Markets Analysis - do you feel its possible - do you feel lucky
GLTA ThaiBayer AG has agreed to pay up to $10.9 billion to settle thousands of US lawsuits claiming that its widely-used weedkiller Roundup causes cancer.
The German drug and pesticide maker says it has come to terms with about 75 percent of the 125,000 filed and unfiled claims overall, according to a statement published on Wednesday
Under the agreement, Bayer will pay $8.8 billion to $9.6 billion to resolve the current Roundup litigation, including an allowance expected to cover unresolved claims.
An additional $1.25 billion will be paid to resolve future litigation.
The news comes after years of talks, resolving lawsuits that has pummeled the company's share price.
On Wednesday, Bayer AG agreed to pay up to $10.9 billion to settle thousands of US lawsuits claiming that its weedkiller Roundup causes cancer
Between $8.8 billion to $9.6 billion will resolve the current Roundup litigation and $1.25 billion will be paid to resolved future litigation. Pictured: Bayer headquarters in Germany
The settled cases over Roundup and other glyphosate-based weedkillers account for about 95 percent of those currently set for trial, it added.
'The Roundup settlement is the right action at the right time for Bayer to bring a long period of uncertainty to an end,' Bayer CEO Werner Baumann said in a statement.
'It resolves most current claims and puts in place a clear mechanism to manage risks of potential future litigation.
'It is financially reasonable when viewed against the significant financial risks of continued, multi-year litigation and the related impacts to our reputation and to our business.'
THE SAGA SURROUNDING THE SAFETY OF GLYPHOSATE
Glyphosate is an herbicide first registered for use in the US in 1974.
It is marketed either as a salt or an amber-colored liquid with no smell.
Monsanto markets glyphosate as part of the pesticide Roundup.
Several studies found that high doses administered to laboratory animals caused cancer, although the evidence is 'limited' when it comes to humans.
In March 2015, the World Health Organization ranked glyphosate a Group 2a carcinogen, a substance that probably causes cancer in people.
In 2017, California added glyphosate to its proposition 65 list, which requires Roundup to carry a warning label if sold in California.
Monsanto has vehemently denied that its product causes cancer and says and more than 800 studies that have established its safety.
Yet more than 4,000 plaintiffs have filed lawsuits - 800 over the past year - claiming Monsanto made them or members of their family sick.
Ken Feinberg, who was appointed settlement mediator by a federal judge more than a year ago, said that while nearly 25,000 claims remained unsettled there will be no more trials as cases settle in coming months.
'Bayer wisely decided to settle the litigation rather than roll the dice in American court,' said Feinberg.
The litigation has mostly swirled around Roundup's main ingredient, a chemical compound called glyphosate.
Glyphosate is marketed either as a salt or an amber-colored liquid with no smell.
Its original maker, Monsanto, introduced it in 1974 as an effective way of killing weeds while leaving crops and plants intact.
Bayer acquired Monsanto in 2018 in a $63 billion deal.
Glyphosate-based products are sold in more than 160 countries, and farmers use it on 250 types of crops in California alone, which is the leading farming state in the US.
In March 2015, the World Health Organization found that that the herbicide is 'probably carcinogenic to humans'.
Then, in 2017, California named glyphosate an ingredient that causes cancer under the state's Proposition 65, which requires Roundup to carry a warning label if sold in California.
But, in April 2019, the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) reaffirmed that glyphosate does not cause cancer.
However, several plaintiffs have alleged that Roundup caused their non-Hodgkin's lymphoma, a cancer that starts in the white bloods cells.
Multiple plaintiffs including Edwin Hardeman (left) and Dwayne Johnson (right) claim a chemical called glyphosate, which is Roundup's main ingredient, caused their non-Hodgkin's lymphoma
Bayer has denied claims that Roundup or its active ingredient glyphosate causes cancer, Pictured: Alva and Albert Pilliod, who won a lawsuit claiming Roundup caused their cancer
Edwin Hardeman, of Windsor, California, sued in federal court in February 2016 and was awarded $80 million, later reduced to $25 million.
in August 2018, Dwayne Johnson, a terminally ill groundskeeper from California, won $289 million in trial that found Roundup did give him cancer.
And in May 2019, Bayer was ordered to pay $2 billion to a California couple, Alva and Albert Pilliod, who claimed the carcinogenic chemical caused their cancer.
Bayer has denied claims that Roundup or its active ingredient glyphosate causes cancer, saying decades of independent studies have shown the product is safe for human use.
The company says it will continue to sell the weedkiller and will not add a cancer warning label to the product, a spokesman said.
