FLC - Game On

As an early investor in this one I've seem the company's progress since inception, the last few years have mainly been from the sideline. It's always had a bucket full of promise however for a long time the rate of progress has been slower than the market demands and the rate of burn higher than the market was prepared to tolerate.

I've recently rejoined the register as a shareholder as I believe that FLC's foundation work is now paying off. Over the past few months we have begun to see the first impact of the years of work to build relationships in China.  The recent 40 unit order for Aspiral will be the tip of the iceberg. FLC have established themselves as an industry leader and with relationships forged across most of the larger population centres in China they are now in my view ready to step things up a gear.

In the last quarter they booked $US223m in future revenue and highlighted that they are on track to achieve EBITDA break-even by Q4 2019. In essence FLC appear to be on the cusp of material revenue growth and about to put the capital hungry start up phase behind them.

As per this post from a few days back FLC and their MABR tech is being recognised at an academic level as a possible solution to some of China's water issues. "Now the MABR integrated equipment developed by Fluence has been popularized in China's rural domestic sewage treatment"

https://hotcopper.com.au/posts/39446056/single

I sometimes find that a companies progress is easier to visualise on a chart. A few notations I've added below show the most significant recent developments. The close on Friday at 55c was the highest weekly close since January 2018. Every attempt to break above this level since that date has been heavily sold into with around 58c generally being the high. My view is that the fundamentals of the company now support moving thru this level, the chart supports this view with the highest weekly volume since February 2018, break thru this historical resistance point and 70c is the next test. With  537,444,400 SOI @70c the MC would be $376m. Not exactly overpriced for a company with a $400m AUD (and growing) pipeline of work ahead at >30% GP