flip of the coin

Chance of success is estimated at 50% for Kora

If heads, then heads held high and:

10% of 448 million BOE at say $10 barrel (reasonable???) = approx 450 million attributable to FAR. Given that FAR market cap is around 46 million (before any dilution for capital raising) then basically looking at 10 bagger territory on Kora alone (say 50 cents). Then add in the multiplier effect of Ophir presumably taking up the Senegal option for one or more wells and a dollar doesn't seem undaydreamable.

If tails, then tails between the legs and:

Kora a duster, Ophir much less likely to take up Senegal option and back to square one looking for JV partners and hoping GB comes good. Share price back perhaps to levels prior to last announcement.

So a lot riding on Kora and it will be very exciting times early 2011

Of course we have to get past all the approvals etc - fingers, toes and eyes crossed that these are pretty much a formality.

It will be interesting to see what valuation Hartleys come up with - no doubt they will issue a new report soon. Also SA might have something to say on this.

At around the 4.5 cent mark I sold about a quarer of my FAR holdings (still leaving 850,000) to buy some other high risk/high return options (MEC Resources options, Oil Basins, Quest Petroleum options/Transerv and wondering about some Pancontinental). Timing wasn't great but not too sorry as was looking particularly fragile there - just happy that things seems to be looking a lot brighter for FAR. And now a new announcement concerning 3D seismic for GB - it's all happening...