AJX (ASX) Floating some thoughts

Originally posted by joewolf ↑

Firstly I believe - my opinion - that really the style of the previous management was to let the hype run ahead of the company's actual position. We are now paying for that. The old faithful are still here because they bought in way below the current price so they have no red and enough green for this to probably go a long way down.

Now we look at volumes and any small degree of selling pressure pushes the share price down. That's- my opinion- because there are no institutions really looking to buy more without a real change in the reporting and a change in the numbers. Until the 4C shows cash flow positive I don't believe any large purchases will enter the market. The comment about institutions on the register - well that can just be larger retail investors who have companies. A corporate entity does not really mean institutional support.

Then we have to look at NC- I suspect that he may well be one of the sellers as his resignation and the needs of spending more time with his family must or could require a change in his investment. I don't blame him I understand that sometimes decisions made are not what you want to do but what you have to do. Or it could just be drip selling of those retail holders getting more and more frustrated. Another share I am invested in had this for about a year where it was pain via a 1000 small cuts. Now the share is almost 3.5 times the 2014 price.

So my take is that for the first time the share price is disconnected to the news to the negative. I also think it's becoming a significant discount. Around A$130milion it's a bit of a joke. You have to decide that the gross margin is not there and the cash flow neutral is not there to sustain this as a risky adventure stock. That isn't what I heard in the conference call. I think the team is trying to convey the opportunity with a degree of conservatism that is not believed. Only the numbers will change this and I think it will only be reflected in the September 4C or maybe even only in the half year.

That means there may well be a buying opportunity for some time. This stock could well be a good buy opportunity for the next 6 months. After which it will either have little value or have a great deal of value. Personally i think it's share price will be driven by fundamentals far more than TA as it's positive reinforcement of the expectations that will drive buying interest in my opinion.

The big question is have I the patience to hold for what is really another 6 months and possibly seethe red figures in my case get even larger...

I think it is an investment grade stock if what we heard yesterday is true and I have no reason not go believe it at this time. Personally i feel dreadfully sorry for the new management team - it must seem that nothing they say has any impact... I think only hard cold numbers every quarter will change that.

Expand

Agree with your thoughts

One thing that might reverse the trend before the next 4C though might be the yearly report. So see how we go in a weeks time.

No.	Vol.	Price($)
1	149317	1.1¢

No.

Vol.

Price($)

149317

1.1¢

Price($)	Vol.	No.
1.2¢	55000	1

Price($)

Vol.

No.

1.2¢

55000

No.	Vol.	Price($)
1	1500000	0.013
2	199317	0.011
4	4672035	0.010
2	211111	0.009
2	182600	0.008

No.

Vol.

Price($)

1500000

0.013

199317

0.011

4672035

0.010

211111

0.009

182600

0.008

Price($)	Vol.	No.
0.012	55000	1
0.013	1240000	2
0.014	363311	2
0.015	1036316	3
0.017	106500	2

Price($)

Vol.

No.

0.012

55000

0.013

1240000

0.014

363311

0.015

1036316

0.017

106500

(20min delay)
Last 1.2¢		Change 0.001(9.09%)		Mkt cap ! $18.74M

Open	High	Low	Value	Volume
1.1¢	1.2¢	1.1¢	$1.701K	143.2K

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