at crossroads

Over the last few days there has been an excellent post analysing and debating CBA (CBA - As predicted). Now CBA is at a very interesting crossroad and I thought I would open a new post to allow for this debate to continue.

Last week, Ultrafart listed the following post...

"viewing the chart from about 10 feet back, I reckon the following likely count for CBA:

Wave I down: $30.62 - $29.25 (23 June - 01 July)
Wave II up: $29.25 - $30.29 (01 July - 03 July)
Wave III down:
Wave III(i) $30.29 - $29.78 (03 July - 04 July)
Wave III(ii) $29.78 - $30.11 (04 July - 08 July)
Wave III(iii) $30.11 - $28.90 (08 July - 10 July)
Wave III(iv) $28.90 - $29.60 (10 July - 10 July)
Wave III(v) $29.60 - ??? (10 July - ???)

...still have Wave IV up to come, and Wave V down after that.

For this picture to hold true in the short term, CBA MUST go below $28.90 again without going above $29.78...

After that, it should rise again, but MUST NOT get above $29.25 before going even lower again...."

With the strong close on Friday (up 36 cents from its lows - albeit on low volume) and a solid night on Wall Street setting up a stronger opening Monday, the $29.78 level could well be under threat. If CBA rises and then pivots down at or below this point (maybe in a similar manner to its pivot off $28.90) then look out below - we will see much lower prices in the next month or so.

If, however, $29.78 is violated with conviction, it sets up a repeat of the price action we saw in May & June that set up the rise from $26.26 to $30.62 - suggesting new highs foe CBA in this movement and a copybook 5 waves up. Such a movement would have confirmed the recent price action as a classic ABC correction where C=A, viz...

A = $1.37 ($30.62 to $29.25)
B = $1.04 ($29.25 to $30.29)
C = $1.39 ($30.29 to $28.90)

Hence on this alternate count, we are currently in Wave III of Wave 5 up to new highs. The wave count to date being:

Wave 1 = $4.85 ($23.05 to $27.90)
Wave 2 = $1.64 ($27.90 to $26.26)
Wave 3 = $4.36 ($26.26 to $30.62)
Wave 4 = $1.72 ($30.62 to $28.90)
Wave 5 = ?

IF this is the correct count, then CBA cannot go any higher than $33.26 as Wave 3 cannot be the shortest wave.

Open for opinions and debate.

Regards,

Jaysee