FLT Post Covid evaluation, page-16

Addonnus,

They've permanently closed 40% of their stores (maybe more to come), the analyst expectation is that they'll pickup a lot of the lost retail revenue in corporate. If corporate reduces materially (agree never going to zero), then this is problematic.

More importantly remember, they have issued (basically) double the amount of shares in the company in order to survive. So $40 in pre covid FLT, is now $20 in the current share price. Perhaps a few people are missing that point.

In really simple terms, trading at $14.5 is back to 75% of where it was pre-covid and closer to 100% depending on when you assume the cash burnt and new debt is used and the shutdown costs of ~$200-$250m ($1 or $1.25 per share).

Around these levels you are buying a business depending on how rose tinted your glasses are (on the burn/shutdown costs) at 75%-90% of the pre CV19 value. So a discount to pre Covid of 10-25% for a business that currently has no real revenue, has shut 40% of it stores, is refunding money (damaged it reputation on that too), is likely owed money by bankrupt companies it won't get (Virgin, Hertz, whoever is next) has shut 40% of it's shops, faces corporate headwinds, cruise headwinds, no known date for a vaccine, unknown global quarantine requirements and an unknown state of consumer finance post all this, oh and domestic travel is very unlikely to provide meaningful margin on it's own and that is burning $65m in real cash (or more right now).

Doesn't feel like the right level of discount to me.