@stockrockIn terms of your 3 keys.
1. Significantly better than incumbent & best in class.
From Manila Water above, they have tested out other tech and have settled on MABR as having the best advantages since 2018.
Below, from X-Water Cambodia (using China data) OPEX comparison savings.
The quality of water is second to MBR, but OPEX kills MBR for life of module, electricity costs and ease of maintenance.
Fluence MABR is flexible in that you can scale it up and turn it into an MBR system if you want the highest quality of effluent, while OPEX is lower.
2. Decentralized investmentI think this is the hardest one, because government decision making is a key driver in this. They need to make the standards, that allow decentralized to be adopted. We are starting to see this mainly in Asia, where we have seen China, the Philippines and now Cambodia start to adopt applicable standards which will enforce standards onto businesses to get connected to systems and not pollute the environment. It is a harder slog getting it through western governments. You see the hoops we had to jump through with multiple council meetings in New Mexico in the US to get the first Aspiral S1 into the Carlsbad man camp.
3. Large player partnershipsAs you said, momentum grows in the industry. Once a few of the big ones adopt, the rest start taking notice.
I would add:
4. Product rangeGetting the right product mix to target the right contracts.
Pre-RWL getting involved with packing everything up nicely in a container, I didn't really see the appeal or how the plants would fit into the landscape. Even after the first demo plants, things were still a bit ugly inside and unrefined.
I feel like the range now is starting to get really polished and starting to find niches and the right sizing with the Aspiral Micro and Aspiral XS being added and greenfield concrete SUBRE really starting to take shape with some interesting custom builds.
If Fluence had the product range they had now when they first entered China, I feel like they would have had stronger partnerships and made some better inroads by now.
BEWG getting involved in basically telling then what they need to do to get bulk order consideration under the 14th 5YP will also help to further refine the product mix. I think there will be some re-use consideration in there as well, as that would be a bit of a murky and unrefined topic in the industry at the moment, having only just been introduced as a big target of the plan. BEWG probably feel that MABR is one of the most flexible products on the market, it can go from 5 m3/d to 20,000 m3/d from what we have seen, and re-use can be built into all of it if required. Not many other techs are as flexible while retaining the low OPEX and easy maintenance.
Hang Shijun is probably also a good one to pick the brains of in terms of what Fluence needs to do to get SUBRE retrofit into China and if that is going to be possible under current investment models.
5. Marketing & SalesI think the sales team being open minded and getting confidence from wins to try new things and be flexible will be important going forward.
Ywtoh said Fluence (now sales director) Wei Xiaolong pitched to iTEST and won that contract, with Fluence never having secured a bulk contract at that point. I wouldn't have believed that the Cambodian contracts were possible a couple years ago, if you said the first 3 plants won in Cambodia would be 5200 m3/d, 7200 m3/d and 20,000 m3/d. The whole sales team should be told that anything is possible and that Cambodia or iTEST can be replicated in any country if you find the right opportunities and partners.
Partnering with BEWG to look at refining use cases and more R&D for MABR, it would be very easy to say to them, no, our product is fantastic as is, buy it as it is. But the chance to learn from and to educate Hang Shijun, who is on the National Committee of Experts on Wastewater Treatment in villages and towns and to have her advise the policy makers how to write MABR models into future bulk tenders, is invaluable.
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@stockrockWe had a discussion after the last 4C about what it would take to accelerate the MABR business growth around 2023 when the Ivory Coast build ends.
https://hotcopper.com.au/posts/54876872/singlehttps://hotcopper.com.au/posts/54890507/singleIf BEWG are buying bulk by then, then that will really help to transition things.
More Cambodian sized plants will really change the average sale value as well.
Selling off some of the other non-core business units will help to further reduce costs in the business.
In terms of how the business itself is holding up, I think we have moved past most of the lumps, although the Q3 report will probably be a neg cashflow again. But Q4 and most of 2022 should look pretty good, depending on IC payment distribution timing.
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@frostieshakeYes, the same 3 Gorges Group. BEWG were basically the foundation partner of 3 Gorges Group, they built the first Yangtze project (Yueyang, Hunan) together and have a few different JVs together in other provinces. So you can see why if people are happy to be working with 3 Gorges, they should be happy to be working with BEWG. You can also see how BEWG has got feedback from 3 Gorges about the type of partner Fluence is and how the product is performing.
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@jamesc666It's not that strange that it is only Chinese news.
Remember that more Chinese trade shows are happening in the next few weeks.
Pretty good for sales staff to be able to stand at the booth, and when people come up and say:
"Hey, we saw this MABR thingo last year, what's the latest?"
Oh just a 20,000 m3/d plant in Cambodia, the largest MABR plant in the world and a partnership with BEWG to go with the 3 Gorges sales and China Railway sales!
"Ok, I think we better schedule a business meeting and take a few extra brochures!"
Chinese sentiment is the US and Australia is not that great, so not sure that a non-monetary BEWG R&D partnership would really be understood or taken as that positive in the West. The other Chinese companies know BEWG though, so they will understand the ramifications.
