This is the pertinent question - it's always good to get dissenting views when we're bullish about a particular investment.
Goldman's target price and sell rating is based on NPV derived from forecast future prices. They predict 7% higher EBITDA this year compared to last (very much underdone IMO, given recent prices and discounts) and then for earnings to crater in the next two years with a decline in 62% FE to US$60 / tonne.
IMO the problem with this is two-fold
(1) it assumes no tendency of the market to dampen a long term fall in prices via supply contraction, and
(2) it ignores the likelihood that grade discounts will narrow further if prices fall.
As we've seen over the past 6 months, trying to predict prices and discounts is a mugs game anyway.
For me FMG is a buy up to the mid $5's. Not as much as it was in the $3's, and it's a shame that the market didn't allow more shares to be bought back near the bottom.
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Last
$22.10 |
Change
0.100(0.45%) |
Mkt cap ! $68.04B |
Open | High | Low | Value | Volume |
$21.99 | $22.22 | $21.87 | $84.79M | 3.834M |
Buyers (Bids)
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
---|---|---|
2 | 9803 | $22.09 |
Sellers (Offers)
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
---|---|---|
$22.11 | 10620 | 3 |
View Market Depth
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
---|---|---|
1 | 10 | 22.090 |
1 | 1400 | 22.060 |
1 | 2500 | 22.050 |
1 | 135 | 22.030 |
3 | 1485 | 22.010 |
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
---|---|---|
22.110 | 6540 | 1 |
22.130 | 107 | 1 |
22.150 | 1623 | 2 |
22.160 | 455 | 1 |
22.180 | 1850 | 1 |
Last trade - 16.10pm 12/07/2024 (20 minute delay) ? |
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FMG (ASX) Chart |