Perhaps we give you the benefit of the doubt and recognise you...

Perhaps we give you the benefit of the doubt and recognise you are posting in an Australian website in US dollar terms. The debt of FMG iscloser to A$3Bn. Interest rate on the majority of that is at 9.75% or above - ie A$300M pa in interest. The A$6.3Bn (FMG value) of subordinated debt is different again. And who knows whether FMG are receiving anywhere near the benchmark pricing - most posters who seem to be in the IO business seem to indicate an inferior quality to the benchmark product. And who also knows the real price of production - what we can suspect is that that price per tonne is not going to be achieved at the lower production volumes - it will be a price per tonne based on fixed and non fixed operating costs - the price will be higher than $20/t if the volumes are lower than anticipated. I am also one who believes the price will be higher regardless because I do not believe what we are told from this company. However I will accept that time will tell the truth on that one. And, IMO,we will see price reductions of 50% or more - not that unbelievable if you consider prices rose in the previous negotiations by 80% +, and the cost of energy, a major driver of the IO cost, has reduced sharply.

You also seem to have not factored in shipping issues, but I am sure they are not a problem and Twiggy has behaved absolutely honorably on his negotiations in this one.

Still, time will tell and every day gives us less time to wait.