FMG Feb 2022 Div Guesses, page-86

I'm with you on this.

I'm expecting the dividend to reduce, irrespective of profits and iron ore price.

FMG is pivoting to make itself green and FFI will require significant working capital and R&D investment, the outcome of which, in my opinion, will be reduced dividends over the next few years. I wouldn't at all be surprised if the dividends reduce to the 70 - 90c per share within the next 1-2 years. I'll take a stab at $1.15 for the upcoming dividend.

With a strong push for green energy, carbon emission reduction and climate change FINALLY getting the political voice that it deserves around the globe, I personally see FMG's FFI pivot being an extremely lucrative move in the long term from a dividend payout and accretive capital growth perspective as FFI scales further along the curve.

Just focusing on Australia alone, I can see carbon tax being a thing by 2030, if not sooner. If the other miners don't catch up to FMG then I can see FMG selling carbon credits to them. This will make FMG a significantly lower-cost producer with significantly stronger gross profit margins.

By then, I have no idea where the SP will be, but I think it'll be higher than $40, and I also believe that the dividend payout will be higher than $1.50.

The Australian government is notoriously slow when it comes to major tax overhaul though, so 2030 could blow out to 2080, lol. I've been waiting over 10 years for a Div7A overhaul...

All IMO, DYOR.