I see a lot of negativity on here. Personally I see IOH as a...

I see a lot of negativity on here. Personally I see IOH as a perfect example of a hugely discounted (and thus low risk) buy at these levels. If FMG don't take up the IV option then they won't be mining Nyidinghu - no ifs or buts. Its such a big deposit that it will get mined (even if that takes longer than expected or another party) and IV is the key to maximising return so IOH will be well rewarded for it whatever happens. Certainly no reason for any subsequent deal to be on worse terms. Its definitely a good asset at a low price for patient capital to own.

Yes this could mean that IV sits quietly for a while but provided IOH continues to hold off cash burn and focus on monetising Bungaroo its hard to see how IOH won't continue to be in a stronger position as time goes on. As an alternative if they at any time want to increase the SP (which has drifted down on tiny volumes) then reintroducing the buyback will drive the SP up.

For me the risks are all on the upside: provided you don't hold too many shares (I'd suggest over 500k would be a little too market influencing currently) I don't see why IOH wont present opportunities to make strong returns from here over the next 3-6-9 months. But I'm the kind of investor who looks at 3-6 months as a fairly ST investment so I can imagine my view mightn't be shared by the hourly chartist brigade - but thats what makes a market!