Yes. I am certainly not disagreeing with you on their current...

Yes. I am certainly not disagreeing with you on their current reported costs or the current spot price.

The great unknown though is what that margin looks like in 6 months/12 months time/2 years time etc

Mining stocks aren't valued at spot multiples. Prices mean revert, major replacement capex is needed and mine lives aren't infinite. This isn't a supermarket business. Analysts - despite some mud slinging in this thread with the benefit of history - know their stuff.

History and plentiful supply says there is a lot of potential downside on price (which even twiggy now talks to) and also there is a much smaller potential downside on cost (even if FMG costs aren't sustainable as some well informed people believe, a cost increase on the current reduced cost base won't have a great impact)

Time will tell either way