Putting the synergy and mutual benefit of sharing rail and infrastructure aside for a minute.
I realize AGO shares have been shorted badly of late but for argument sakes, if we look at a scrip offer of 3 AGO shares for 2 FMG shares, then the combined entity will still leave Twiggy Forrest (who owns 32%) a substantial blocking stake in deterring any would be vulture to have a go (not to mention many long termers who would object to any takeover until the moment is ripe).
FMG's market cap is 7.7 X bigger.
FMG market cap = $14.51B AGO marhet cap = $1.87B
Would be better if BC Iron also get merged into this scenario.
AGO Price at posting:
$2.09 Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held