Well- things seem to be settling down a bit in Belem- not that the ICUs aren't still full- just the new cases. Governor Helder Barbalho has ended the total lockdown in Para, but is maintaining a requirement of social isolation.

But this may be far too early for the south east, where cities like Parauapebas, Canaa dos Carajas and Maraba are yet to see the peak. And as for the mines- they didn't close. Operations were limited, yes, but the shifts still appear to be rotating. So much for the lockdown there.

Note: Beleme is the capital of Para, and Para is home to Vale's largest mine- S11D, a part of the Carajas mining complex.

Lockdown ends Sunday, 24, but recommendation of social isolation will be maintained throughout Pará

24, May, 2020Pedro Reis

This Saturday (23), the State Government released state decree 777/2020, related to restrictions on the movement of people after the lockdown, which ends this Sunday, the 24th.

The determinations take into account a technical report prepared by the Federal Rural University of the Amazon (Ufra) and the Federal University of Pará (UFPA), with the support of the Secretary of State for Public Health (Sespa), the Secretary of State for Science, Technology and Professional and Technological Education (Sectet) and Information and Communication Technology Company of the State of Pará (Prodepa).The analysis shows that the number of cases in the capital of Pará follows a downward trend.

“The metropolitan region of Belém has a tendency to reduce contamination and deaths by Covid-19, as well as in its demand for hospital resources.This fact allows us to affirm that the dimensioning of these resources is consistent with the state's supply capacity ”, informs the report.

Photo: Ricardo Amanajás / Ag. Pará ”

The analysis of this group is the basis for the decision regarding the epidemiological picture that allows, in a very gradual way, to have this later moment.From Monday 25, we will have the responsibility to maintain social isolation.It is not possible to leave the lockdown to normal, it will be something that will happen from week to week, so that we do not have a new wave of contamination ”, explains Governor Helder Barbalho.“It is technically proven that the epidemiological curve has been falling, with fewer confirmed cases and deaths.We have to be cautious, calm and think about people's health and life, and act responsibly ”, he reinforces.

Scientific contribution - The Rector of Ufra, Prof.Marcel Botelho, explains that even in March the university released a forecast of peak contagion for May in the metropolitan region of Belém, but taking into account the number of accumulated cases.When Sespa started separating notifications for the last 24 hours from notifications for previous days, the survey, which uses a mathematical model and artificial intelligence, was redone and the result was the high point of the curve between April 20 and April 1. in the metropolitan region of Belém.

Photo: Disclosure ”

What we see daily confirms the trend, but it is logical that it is not possible to simply return to normality, because hospitals, ICU [Intensive Care Units] continue with many people.The big problem with this virus is having a very long recovery time, the World Health Organization (WHO) talks between 14 and 21 days of intensive care bed occupation.If we start to drop the curve at the beginning of May, there is a patient being discharged just now ”, he justifies."The exit from the lockdown is possible, but it has to be slow, gradual, and with great care to prevent the curve from growing again", guides the rector.

Photo: Disclosure

From now on, the monitoring will be done weekly, since the oscillations are many and depend fundamentally on the population's adherence to restrictive and preventive measures.By the end of next week, Ufra should have a complete study, just as done for the RMB, on the pandemic scenario in all mesoregions of the State.

“We need to continue protecting ourselves, with a mask, washing our hands.The end of the lockdown does not dispense with this care, quite the contrary.We are no longer obliged to stay at home, but the campaign continues: if you have nothing indispensable to do, stay at home. It is in this sense that we can leave [the lockdown], always monitoring so that there is no new increase in cases and overloading the health system ”, recommends Professor Marcel Botelho.

The head of Sectet, Carlos Maneschy, affirms that all the evaluation made by the group was also based on experiences lived by other countries that today live moments of greater relaxation of the measures of social restriction."We are showing trends and projections, and from there the government can make decisions based on scientific input," he says.“The lockdown, the opening of the Metropolitan Polyclinic and the Abelardo Santos Regional Hospital for patients in Covid-19, and all the other actions combined certainly pointed to this trend of stability, showing that the government was on the right track.And now we start working on flexibilization ”, analyzes the secretary.