There is some kind of uncertainty in the IOP prices in relation to dmt or wmt, whether CFR is included or not. I can provide a number of sites from which you can see a relatively large variation in the IOP, there are also different products. I am not pretending that my estimate was very precise however I would say with an error of not exceeding of 10-15% the provided calculation should be relatively close to what I am expecting to see in the company report for Q1 FY22.
In relation to the subject line I would like to note that
- for the past almost 5 years the AIOP has been from US$70 or higher
- at the end of the last year very famous brokers such as JP Morgan and Investment bank UBS were not able to predict so high IOP occurred this year.
So there is no point to discuss the original question under this thread (see details https://hotcopper.com.au/threads/fmg-profitability-when-io-at-50-60usd.6367889/?post_id=56994812 ), as the reality clearly shows that the specified price range has not happened in the last 5 years and with a high probability it will not happen in the next 5 years too. I think this question has the same sense as instead of the US$50-$60 original range the specified range would have been US$30-$40.
FMG Profitability when IO at $50-60USD?, page-27
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