Mark
The Tollhurst report predicts IO prices (in US$)will peak in 2010-2011 period then drop steadily through to 2017 back to almost $50/ton. See FMG website.
IMO IO will peak in price (not demand) in 2009, stabilise for 2 years and fall steadily (maybe quicker) after that.
Yes, China does has mass urbanisation. But it's total population is not growing due to mao's 'one child' policy some 30 years ago.
Will another 350 Billion move to the big smoke by 2025? That's just over 20 Billion/yr every year.
I reckon these figures are too high. Billions have moved to cities in the past 20 years. More will move but can't see this rate being sustained.
I haven't read BHP's predictions re IO price. Do they mention the massive new supplies coming from RIO, BHP, VALE and soon FMG?
FMG will be HUGE in tonnage. My concern.... will it be profitable?
fmg sp ignores high risks, page-5
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