The market has structured itself to be immune to many of the...

The market has structured itself to be immune to many of the threats you list TB. There are plenty of sectors which are set up to benefit from war. A lot of sabre-rattling is carried out precisely to create business opportunities and motivation for growth and deal-making. Poor people who are affected by disasters are not participants in the market, so many horrible things that happen to our fellow humans do not cause stress to us lucky investors. In fact the creation of poverty could be seen as positive because it removes risk from the market which is increasingly made up of even richer people as a result.

Climate change droughts and floods are another matter, but it's pretty clear that the market will react only AFTER the disasters happen. It will have to be something like an unprecedented hurricane season which kills 100,000 people in the US and leaves millions homeless also in the US, combined with a global drought which quadruples the price of food everywhere. I don't know if it will happen in one year or 10 years or 20, or whether it will be my example or some other climate collapse. On balance I do expect to see it in my lifetime. But I think you're very brave to say it will happen in the next three weeks!