FMG Technical Analysis, page-11825

It may be their thread that they started, but it is ramblings nonetheless. Here's my report for your consideration. Note that I don't just "blame the shorters" which in my opinion is not analysis.

Trading Data Overview

FMG's trading performance today reflects a bearish trend, with the following key metrics:

• Current Share Price: 15.71 AUD, as reported by Yahoo Finance.
• Previous Close: 16.21 AUD, indicating a decline of approximately 3.08% from yesterday's close.
• Opening Price: 16.14 AUD, slightly below the previous close, suggesting a gap down at the market open.
• Day's Range: The stock traded between a low of 15.65 AUD and a high of 16.19 AUD, with the current price near the lower end of this range, indicating downward momentum.
• 52-Week Range: Over the past year, FMG has fluctuated between 13.18 AUD and 23.52 AUD. The current price is above the 52-week low but significantly below the high, suggesting it is trading in the lower half of its annual range.
• Market Capitalization: The intra-day market cap is 48.37 billion AUD, down from 49.91 billion AUD as of the previous day's close, reflecting the price decline.

These figures indicate that FMG has experienced volatility today, with a clear downward trend. The stock's position above the 52-week low may provide some support, but the significant drop from the 52-week high suggests broader challenges.

Internet Sentiment Analysis

Internet sentiment is derived from recent news articles, analyst reports, and social media posts, revealing a mixed but slightly negative outlook:

• Analyst and News Commentary:
  • A recent article from The Australian Financial Review (AFR) highlights that UBS, a major financial institution, believes the recent sell-off in FMG has been "overdone." This was reported in March 2025, with UBS suggesting that the market is too pessimistic about FMG after an 11% fall . This indicates a positive sentiment from a key analyst, suggesting potential undervaluation.
  
  
  • However, other AFR articles raise concerns. For instance, FMG's $6.2 billion Iron Bridge project has faced further delays, as reported in May 2025, which could negatively impact investor confidence due to potential cost overruns and operational challenges .
  
  
  • There are also significant concerns about the future of iron ore demand, particularly from China. An AFR article from May 2025 quotes FMG's CEO, Andrew Forrest, expressing fears that China's shift toward green steel could reduce demand for Pilbara iron ore, potentially turning the region into a "wasteland" . This introduces uncertainty and could be seen as a negative factor for FMG, given China's importance as a market.
  
  
  • On a positive note, FMG is actively pursuing green energy initiatives, including hydrogen projects, as mentioned in an AFR article from this month . This could appeal to investors focused on sustainability and long-term growth, though the article also notes the departure of the hydrogen chief, which introduces some uncertainty.
  
  
• Social Media Sentiment:
  • An X post from @***, dated June 10, 2025, noted that FMG shares have "tumbled" due to China’s property slump affecting iron ore prices and the company's green energy plans remaining on the drawing board

Comparative Analysis

To provide context, here is a table summarizing key trading and sentiment data:

	Metric	Value	Implication
1	Current Price	15.71 AUD	Down 3.08% from previous close
2	Day's Range	15.65 - 16.19 AUD	Volatility, trending downward.
3	52-Week Range	13.18 - 23.52 AUD	Above low, below high
4	UBS Analyst View	Sell-off overdone	Positive, suggested undervaluation
5	Iron Bridge Project	Delays reported	Negative, potential cost overruns
6	China Demand Concerns	Fears of reduced demand	Negative, major market risk
7	Green Energy Focus	Active pursuit	Positive, long-term growth potential

This table highlights the contrast between short-term challenges (price decline, project delays, demand concerns) and potential long-term opportunities (green energy, analyst optimism).