FMG Technical Analysis, page-4350

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bikemad

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18/01/20

00:44

Post #: 42446290
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Originally posted by slange: ↑

Yeah hi mate.
The basics of the repo crisis is about interest rates.The US Fed is pumping overnight money to hedge funds,institutions and banks so they can lever up and gamble and then supposedly return the money back to the Fed when the days gambling has been done.
The reason that the Fed has had to enter the repo market is because of a lack of reserves held at the Fed by major banks.The Fed pays interest on those reserves but with falling interest rates major banks like JP Morgan etc decided to pull their reserves and buy longer term bonds in the expectation that the Fed would enter that market on the buy side pushing bond prices higher and yields lower.The Fed is adamant that it will not buy longer term bonds as that will result in outright QE. (Instead of the inright QE we have at the moment)
There is also a lot of fear within the system and banks are not keen on lending money to certain other banks because of derivative and counter party risk.
So the Fed is stepping in to supply liquidity and keep interest rates down and this is the main reason (if not the only) that these markets have kept going higher.
It can't last as the pressure for higher rates will only increase.When that comes the poor saps who have bought overpriced "assets" for underpriced money will have a problem as the reversal occurs.
Regarding fmg I believe it is moving towards a peak (as are the broader markets) and when it turns it may well be fast and furious.
So the way I would play it would be to set stops at certain levels to protect profits and then that could be reinvested at lower prices. If and when they occur.
The one thing that people need to understand is that these markets are multi dimensional and are not linear and anybody who thinks its just a one way street doesn't understand these markets.
As far as scenarios go I'm looking for a top in fmg anytime from now but this is not based on company fundamentals, its simply based on the fact that these markets are on the moon.But depending on the price action fmg has a habit of topping around this time of year and the price action is justifying a top.
The question is,will it happen?
A monthly target here is 12.62 and if it gets that far in the next month or two then thats probably going to be it.
I believe a decent correction is on the horizon in all markets and may last for quite a few months and for fmg it may well go into September/October but it would depend on when the correction actually starts and the broader markets.
FMG will no doubt be higher in the future as currencies collapse against commodities as the monetary spigots are turned wide open to keep the game going.
Another scenario here is, if the globalists win (marxists communists) then everything might be shut down and we revisit the old soviet union.
We face chaos and it will be interesting to see how it all works out.
We are experiencing history in the making and how many people have even got any idea.
cheers

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slange, the above is a great post and I agree with you completely. Much of what you have written is exactly what I have been thinking for months.

I recently sold down the last of my FMG stock. Don't get me wrong I think FMG is one of the best companies in any market and I hope to buy back in at some stage in the future. I have had an extraordinary run and just don't want to be left holding the bag when the music stops.

I am currently building a couple of positions in more defensive plays.like gold. Blind freddy can see that with gold trending up so strongly when equity markets are going gang busters there has to be a lot of smart money getting set.

I sincerely wish holders of FMG well. I will watch closely from the sideline.

FMG Price at posting: $11.41 Sentiment: None Disclosure: Not Held
4 Upvote

1 Great analysis

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Last $21.67		Change -1.315(5.72%)		Mkt cap ! $67.55B

Open	High	Low	Value	Volume
$22.35	$22.38	$21.67	$1.435B	66.24M

Buyers (Bids)

No.	Vol.	Price($)
47	19975	$21.66

Sellers (Offers)

Price($)	Vol.	No.
$21.67	8621	13

View Market Depth

No.	Vol.	Price($)
21	3394	21.660
48	83741	21.650
13	5940	21.640
9	4187	21.630
9	5674	21.620

Price($)	Vol.	No.
21.670	12653	24
21.680	18309	17
21.690	9235	21
21.700	13324	14
21.710	6353	12

Last trade - 15.38pm 18/06/2024 (20 minute delay)


Last $21.79		Change -1.315 ( 5.23 %)
Open	High	Low	Volume
$22.17	$22.37	$21.66	4148008
Last updated 15.58pm 18/06/2024 ?

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